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Cake day: June 7th, 2024

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  • Well obviously our reality isn’t actually paradoxical. We call it that way because it seems like our estimates and conclusions don’t fit our observed reality:

    Based on mathematical estimations (e.g. the Drake equation) it’s pretty unlikely that we’re the only intelligent species in our galaxy. So where is everyone?

    Every answer to that question tries to resolve the seeming paradox. And your answer specifically isn’t unheard of either, it’s called the economic explanation. Throwing satellites out is obviously possible, we’ve done it and Voyager 1 will reach another solar system in roughly 30,000 years. So it’s technically possible, just very uneconomic.


  • Random behavior of subatomic particles doesn’t make free will any likelier either though.

    If they act at random on a makro level their randomness would average out to zero. And that actually checks out, since the mechanical forces of the atomic and molecular level are known, observable, and provable. An apple drops from the tree to the ground, every time. Causality is still a thing, even if not observable at the subatomic level.

    The only way to imagine a subatomically based free will would be some mechanic over which we, at will, could change the randomness of subatomic particles to behave in a predictable pattern and on a scale that’s grand enough to make the proverbial apple fall upward. Or at least make or synapses do something that they physically speaking wouldn’t have done otherwise.

    Free will is as likely as magic. In fact it would actually be some form of magic - a volitional breach of causality itself.


  • But if we are truly deterministic beings, the factors determining our environment are incredibly important. Even (not freely) acknowledging that free will doesn’t exist we could very well (not freely) decide that we need a justice system in this society because we (not freely) want less crime, and people will (not freely) do less crime in a society where such a system is in place.

    In the end it doesnt matter if people act based on free will or entirely predetermined. Or society developed as we are, and we put systems into place that seem to work. Sure, someone robbing a bank might do so for reasons that were predetermined in his brain and surroundings, but getting prosecuted for it would in turn become something that codetermines every future moment of his life.

    The only think determinism really changes is perspective. It enables us to say: Okay I understand why I/they/you acted this way, or maybe I don’t understand, but can assume that there were reasons. That’s it. It lends understanding; it doesn’t have to chance anything.


  • The Dark Forest Hypothesis. A very compelling answer to the Fermi paradox: If the universe is this vast and life surely must have developed over and over all around us, how come we never found anyone?

    If two civilizations ever met, chances are incredibly slim that they were comparably or even similarly developed at this exact moment in time. Think about a modern army traveling back in time 400 years and fighting a group of swordmen with horses; the medieval people would be so overwhelmed it would barely classify as a fight, and that’s just with a few hundred years of difference in technological progress. The random difference between species from different planets and systems would be far, far greater. So if two of them would meet, one of them would very likely be to the other as a god to an ant.

    The universe might be brimming with life, but everyone who gets this far must be aware that half of them could wipe you out like ants, the other half could be as indomitable as a god. Cue the dark forest metaphor: There’s prey and there’s predators. We don’t know which one we are in each instance, or how many of each are out there. But how could a first contact protocoll look like in such a competetive (and very likely deadly unfair) environment?

    In the dark forest only two types of species can survive: Those that attack. And those who hide.