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Cake day: January 15th, 2024

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  • Yeah a much more plausible explanation of why Dems outperformed polling was new voters after the overturn or Roe. Similar to when Trump brought out new voters for Republicans which made them outperform polls. Of course we can’t know the true reason for sure and there are many competing factors, but this all seems very likely to me.

    The other thing we have to realize is that Republicans still won the House popular vote by about 3% so the Rep count paints a rosier picture than the actual reality of the raw count.

    All that said I still expect Biden to slightly outperform polling in 2024 due to new Roe-inspired voters.