• boydster@sh.itjust.works
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      1 month ago

      According to the National Archives, it seems like succession might not necessarily apply and would likely be argued over by lawyers should he die before the Electoral College meets. I’ll paste their text below, and I pasted the link in a separate answer

      What happens if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated?

      There is no Federally-required process to follow if a candidate who is projected to receive electoral votes dies or becomes incapacitated between the general election and the meeting of electors. However, individual States may have their own requirements that govern how electors must vote at the meeting of the electors. In 1872, when Horace Greeley passed away between Election Day and the meeting of electors, the electors who were slated to vote for Greeley voted for various candidates, including Greeley. The votes cast for Greeley were not counted due to a House resolution passed regarding the matter. See the full Electoral College vote counts for President and Vice President in the 1872 election.

      We don’t know what would happen if a candidate who, dies after or becomes incapacitated between the meeting of electors and the counting of electoral votes in Congress.

      The Constitution is silent on whether this candidate meets the definition of “President elect” or “Vice President elect.” If the candidate with a majority of the electoral votes is considered “President elect” before the counting of electoral votes in Congress, §3 of the 20th Amendment applies. That section states that the Vice President elect will become President if the President-elect dies or becomes incapacitated.

      If a winning Presidential candidate dies or becomes incapacitated between the counting of electoral votes in the Congress and the inauguration, the Vice President-elect becomes President, according to §3 of the 20th Amendment.

        • Wilzax@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Not necessarily. If it’s after the electoral votes are cast, then yes, definitely.

          But the electors are bound by different rules, set by their respective states, on how they would vote if Trump died before then.

      • bdonvr@thelemmy.club
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        1 month ago

        I’m not sure how there’s much of any argument for it. It’s pretty clear that a person only officially becomes vice/president-elect after being voted for in the EC.

        Though what happens it the EC elects a dead man? Many states REQUIRE their electors to vote as told. Probably would see more state level law crises at that point. Resolutions to make the electors vote for the VP candidate if the presidential one dies.

    • adarza@lemmy.ca
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      1 month ago

      i remember looking that stuff up before… iirc, vance would not enter the line of succession until the congressional count of electoral votes in early january.

      • apfelwoiSchoppen@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        Which again, is inevitable. Good luck getting the Supreme Court to rule against the Republicans if this happened. The ticket was on the ballot, not the individual candidate for President.

  • tate@lemmy.sdf.org
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    1 month ago

    Others have explained that it depends on when, but I want to add this: when a VP becomes pres. through succession, the speaker does not become VP automatically. The new pres. picks whoever they want. Ford chose the governor of NY, for example.

    • scarabic@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      Two assassination plots though, and that was before his presidency was assured. I’m not hoping, I’m not calling for it. But the impulse definitely seems to be out there to pop a cap in this man.

  • Skyrmir@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    There is never a path for the speaker of the house to become vice president. Either the President and Vice President are dead and he’s president, or he’s still just the speaker.

    As others have pointed out, before or after the electoral count is completed, makes a minor difference. It would be interesting to watch it play out.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    It has never happened before, so we don’t really know. What I think would happen is that Vance would just get immediately sworn in as the President on Jan 20 if God exercises His Ultimate Veto on Trump’s second term.

    But the Presidential Succession Act only covers vacancies for the Presidency. Once the office of the President is filled again, nothing else happens. It’s not like everyone else “moves up” a slot. Mike Johnson would probably see the VP position as a demotion honestly.

    The Office of the VP would remain vacant until President Vance nominates a candidate, and then it must be approved by both houses of Congress in order for the position to be filled.

  • TachyonTele@lemm.ee
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    1 month ago

    Probably. Republicans would fight tooth and nail to stay in power. And with the House and Senate, plus Supreme Court on thier side it wouldn’t even be a contest.

  • njm1314@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    Johnson doesn’t just move up into a new job. They’d have to pick a new vice president. They could pick Johnson I suppose, I don’t know why he would want to be the vice president when he is Speaker of the House though. Now the question is how they pick a new vice president, because I don’t believe there’s any precedent to guide that. Would they have to nominate one in Congress and have them vote on him? That’s what they would do if the vice president already been sworn in, but since he wouldn’t have been at that point I don’t know there’s any real way of knowing. You can make an argument that the RNC would be able to just name one, but again there’s no precedent.

    • Microw@lemm.ee
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      1 month ago

      I figured it’s Johnson because it’s always Johnson… Andrew Johnson after Lincoln and Lindon B. after JFK

  • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    The accepted wisdom is yes. The people voted for the VP already and that is honored. Worst case scenario is the election ends up in Congress where Vance would win anyways.