I think a lot of American planners expect the next war to be against China more than Russia, most likely as part of efforts to reclaim Taiwan militarily. Whether that actually happens or not, China seems to be trying to build a military that can win against the U.S., either by matching strengths or some more asymmetric means. I think I saw a story recently that China was constructing mockups of American navy ships in a desert that seem to be for war gaming, as an example.
Had a long talk with a very intelligent, young, Navy SIGINT guy last New Years. He’s been out there, intercepting and working on signal intelligence. Basically said, “China is the enemy, and they’re far more able and serious than you think. Can’t say much more, take it or leave it.”
That’s debatable, but that doesn’t have much bearing on China’s military capabilities. Their urban canters are very much developed. You could also say that much of the US is rural and poor, while our military has been involving themselves all over the world for a long time.
Well a powerful economic base is the foundation of a superpower. The US leans on General Dynamics, Raytheon, countless contractors, etc. China has no base as extensive as that.
Idk if Taiwan would be worth the war, at least not more than supplying Ukraine who’s fighting Russia, which has done way more damage to our country recently. We need to catch up on our local chip manufacturing capabilities fast first, though.
Right after they had that Asia pacific summit in SF, suddenly there was very little news about threats to Taiwan, and there was a lot of news about new chip manufacturing setting up in like Arizona and Utah or something. Which makes me think we are going to let China take Taiwan.
I can’t blame China for wanting Taiwan back. Imagine if we had a civil war and a foreign military invaded and occupied Alaska during a war just before it. Then at the end of the war one side fled to Alaska and declared it independant but we couldn’t retake it because we were so debilitated from the civil war and the war before it. Now a foreign government steps in and says you can’t retake your territory because they said so. I’d be pissed too.
Well, while I understand them wanting it back with that context, it’s also been long enough that it feels like there’s no point or at least not worth the trouble for them, either lol. I’m just anti-war on all fronts. It’s just, idk, why at this point? National pride? It’s not like the have a ton of resources, like oil like Alaska does, do they? Just the tech sector, and China could probably catch up on chip manufacturing part of that in time or just get them through trade.
But maybe people’s grandparents can still probably remember when they were united and we need more time. Plus, I know they can get pretty nationalistic over there, too. I’m sure the US would try to take Hawaii in 50 years of whatever if a foreign country helped them separate from us, even though I’d like to think if they didn’t want to rejoin, we wouldn’t. But who knows, I’ve seen our right-wing in power 🙄
If you look at a map of China and the Pacific you can see that the “first island chain” of US allies totally surrounds China. From their military and strategic point of view they are being contained.
Now if China were to control the island of Taiwan they would break that containment. It’s very likely they care more about the strategic position rather than whatever it is they say about wanting to reunite with the Taiwanese. They don’t give a shit about the Taiwanese, they just want the island.
Ah, I didn’t even think about it in geographic sense. Makes total sense. And ya, the people in power never care about that petty shit like national unity, it’s just what they use to get the country on board with the next war or whatever, so with hindsight not sure why I went down that tangent lol.
I think a lot of American planners expect the next war to be against China more than Russia, most likely as part of efforts to reclaim Taiwan militarily. Whether that actually happens or not, China seems to be trying to build a military that can win against the U.S., either by matching strengths or some more asymmetric means. I think I saw a story recently that China was constructing mockups of American navy ships in a desert that seem to be for war gaming, as an example.
Had a long talk with a very intelligent, young, Navy SIGINT guy last New Years. He’s been out there, intercepting and working on signal intelligence. Basically said, “China is the enemy, and they’re far more able and serious than you think. Can’t say much more, take it or leave it.”
China is still mostly poor and rural. For all of their economic expansion things are still basic there for most people.
If 75% of China’s population is poor and rural, that other 25% is still higher than USA’s population, which also includes poor and rural people.
That’s debatable, but that doesn’t have much bearing on China’s military capabilities. Their urban canters are very much developed. You could also say that much of the US is rural and poor, while our military has been involving themselves all over the world for a long time.
Well a powerful economic base is the foundation of a superpower. The US leans on General Dynamics, Raytheon, countless contractors, etc. China has no base as extensive as that.
Idk if Taiwan would be worth the war, at least not more than supplying Ukraine who’s fighting Russia, which has done way more damage to our country recently. We need to catch up on our local chip manufacturing capabilities fast first, though.
Right after they had that Asia pacific summit in SF, suddenly there was very little news about threats to Taiwan, and there was a lot of news about new chip manufacturing setting up in like Arizona and Utah or something. Which makes me think we are going to let China take Taiwan.
I can’t blame China for wanting Taiwan back. Imagine if we had a civil war and a foreign military invaded and occupied Alaska during a war just before it. Then at the end of the war one side fled to Alaska and declared it independant but we couldn’t retake it because we were so debilitated from the civil war and the war before it. Now a foreign government steps in and says you can’t retake your territory because they said so. I’d be pissed too.
Well, while I understand them wanting it back with that context, it’s also been long enough that it feels like there’s no point or at least not worth the trouble for them, either lol. I’m just anti-war on all fronts. It’s just, idk, why at this point? National pride? It’s not like the have a ton of resources, like oil like Alaska does, do they? Just the tech sector, and China could probably catch up on chip manufacturing part of that in time or just get them through trade.
But maybe people’s grandparents can still probably remember when they were united and we need more time. Plus, I know they can get pretty nationalistic over there, too. I’m sure the US would try to take Hawaii in 50 years of whatever if a foreign country helped them separate from us, even though I’d like to think if they didn’t want to rejoin, we wouldn’t. But who knows, I’ve seen our right-wing in power 🙄
If you look at a map of China and the Pacific you can see that the “first island chain” of US allies totally surrounds China. From their military and strategic point of view they are being contained.
Now if China were to control the island of Taiwan they would break that containment. It’s very likely they care more about the strategic position rather than whatever it is they say about wanting to reunite with the Taiwanese. They don’t give a shit about the Taiwanese, they just want the island.
Ah, I didn’t even think about it in geographic sense. Makes total sense. And ya, the people in power never care about that petty shit like national unity, it’s just what they use to get the country on board with the next war or whatever, so with hindsight not sure why I went down that tangent lol.
The US wants a fight with China to justify our perpetual military buildup and foreign reach.