Please define “we”. This is a international community so you can’t assume that everyone lives in the same country as you.
The Default Country, I guess
We’re on a lemmy.ml community, so Mali I guess
Rome?
Yes both Western and Eastern Roman empire!
The country that’s not part of the rest of the world
Lol weren’t they claiming they support the two state solution literally a couple of days ago?
I’ll assume they mean the countries that currently support Ukraine
Well, who else in the world has been trying to a pass multibillion dollar aid package to Ukraine for the past couple months? The aid is about to get voted on this weekend.
I don’t follow every countries politics and what bills they’re trying to pass. I barely keep track of my own country’s stuff.
You right, my bad bro
Well, I don’t know, but multiple countries in the EU have been debating and passing multibillion dollar packages to Ukraine.
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I’m by no means an expert in international relations. However, with respect to your last paragraph, I do think that China monitors the development carefully. I would even go so far and assume that they won’t act on Taiwan until the situation in the Ukraine is decided. Not because the cases are so similar, but because China and Russia seem to be important partners for each other. Right now, China is supporting Russia financially by buying resources from them (if I’m not mistaken) and also supporting them with equipment embargoed by the EU/US. China will probably know what it’s risking when they attack Taiwan and I doubt that they want to create that sort of situation while one of their most important partners (might be mistaken here) is in a war that binds their resources and weakens their support for China.
On the other hand, they could also try to start the war on Taiwan soon, hoping that NATO/US stretch their support too thin.
Tl;Dr: I don’t know either.
The number of fronts in this war seems to keep expanding.
I hate that I predicted this all the way back when the “two week” lockdown was starting, and that nobody listened to me and I got accused of “valuing the economy over Grandma”.
If my account hadn’t been deleted I could link to my comment where I predicted:
- lockdowns would extend far longer than two weeks
- it would ruin the global economy
- causing world war 3 to start
I was just laughed at basically.
I can’t follow you. Where is the connection between lockdowns (I assume you mean the Covid19 lockdowns?) and the war in Ukraine?
I’m jumping in after skimming so much long discussion… But I do see a possible link here. COVID and the lockdowns have shaken up a lot of society. I remember even back when the anti-mask and BLM protests happened in America about the same time (I’m not American btw, just seeing some news) feeling like the stress and shut-in-ness of lockdowns and COVID fear is probably part of the fuel for people to protest: it gives a sort of release from that.
Now the economy’s been shaken up so much, and more people are finding it hard to get an acceptable job. The comfortable life trajectory many people were on has taken a hit and wealth they assumed was safe and assured (including things like house-buying prospects) has crumbled beneath them.
Many are also suffering brain fog and Long COVID, making life feel less stable, and hitting their job prospects.
The intensity of COVID responses also seems to have given much fuel to American political disunity, and hatred and resentment, as well as political/civil frustration elsewhere in the world.
I don’t know how Russia has been, but I imagine there’s some of the same, at least. And all this unsettling of life and intangible worry, puts people in a much readier situation to rise up around some flash point - such as a war - or to be desperate enough to concede whatever demands their government makes of them - such as conscription for dubious end.
Not that that’s the whole picture by any means, but, perhaps, there is some link from lockdowns to global war.
Russia can then ingest Ukraine, continue to seed political distrust in Western countries and then potentially start another war in Europe a few years later.
Holy shit this is the most mapgame-brained comment of all time. You mean Russia will get enough war score to annex Ukrainian territories, wait a few years for aggressive expansion to die down, spend some admin points to press the “sow discontent” button, then war when the casus belli is ready? Like a classic EU4 blob?
Stop gaming and read some books.
I mean.
It’s not like Russia has never done any of those things individually.
So doing them again in that sequence seems right.
If the US doesn’t pass aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually.
More importantly for the US, China will see the lack of support as a sign of weakness increasing the timeline for a active conflict over Taiwan.
Ukraine is a test case for Taiwan that the Chinese government is paying extreme attention to
If the US passes aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually. You don’t have to take my word for it either https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn’t Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
Russia doesn’t need to capture western Ukraine, and I think it’s highly unlikely they would try to do that. A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses. Then it will take over most of Ukraine, dictate terms to whatever rump state is left in western Ukraine.
There is no scenario where Ukraine is going to be in a position of any strength here. The longer the war continues the more manpower Ukraine loses and ultimately the worse the terms are going to be in the end.
It’s also worth mentioning that whatever is left of west Ukraine will become entirely dependent on the west creating a huge economic drain on Europe at the threat of a huge refugee crisis if this state collapses. This is a nightmare scenario for Europe where the economy is already going into a recession.
A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses.
But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That’s a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they’ll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
The thing is that the current regime in Ukraine doesn’t have much support hence why they cancelled elections. It’s also worth noting that most people in Ukraine didn’t really want to have a war with Russia. Zelensky originally ran on a platform of peace and implementing Minsk.
Guerrilla warfare requires support from general public who provide supplies for the partisans, hide them, and so on. I don’t see that being the case in Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that Russia managed to avoid this scenario in Chechnya already. In fact, Chechens are now fighting along side Russia in Ukraine. Looking at slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 is illustrative. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here’s how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided roughly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
What I expect will happen is that most people in eastern and central Ukraine will just accept being part of Russia going forward. Those who felt strongly against this either fled the country or died fighting because they were motivated to fight. Also worth noting that once it becomes clear that the war is lost there’s going to be a huge backlash against the west, since lack of western support will be blamed for it by the hardliners. A lot of weapons that the west flooded into Ukraine disappeared. In fact, CBS did a study at one point that found that only just “30-40%” of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. There’s no doubt that a lot of these weapons are now in the hands of various far right groups across Europe at this point. Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It’s entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn’t completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It’s entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
The longer this war goes on, the worse the end result will be for whatever is left of Ukraine. What I think is happening is that Biden admin is cynically trying to drag the war out until the election is over.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
Lets look at the conditions inside of russia. Russia’s air defenses are stretched very thin right now. And if you don’t believe me, look at the amount of oil refineries destroyed, and the fact ukraine can strike 600 miles into russia.
Not to also mention, the only warfare russia seems to be able to do is meat wave tactics. For those who don’t know, its sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get mowed down by machine guns.
And don’t forget what’s happening around belgorod inside of russia, russia is using border guards as if they were trained army.
Weird that we don’t have any videos of hundreds of thousands of Russians walking into machine guns.
Weird how the nazi generals claimed the same thing, despite no mention of that in the extensive soviet records released after the coup.
Yes, let’s look at the conditions inside Russia. The economy is growing faster than the G7, and Russia is outproducing the west 3x in terms of stuff like artillery shells. Meanwhile, there is zero evidence that Ukrainian attacks on refineries have actually achieved anything. Last I checked Russian oil exports are still going strong.
There’s also zero actual evidence for the claims of meatwave tactics, this is just the racist asiatic hordes narrative westerners keep clinging to.
And not sure how Russian border guards repelling attacks at the border is misuse of border guards in your mind.
Maybe read and try to learn from what people with a clue have to say, as explained by an actual professional in the article I linked instead of clinging to your delusional fantasies.
Ah, yes, Vershinin, the first “first director of the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library, from 2009 until 2018”. Solid source.
Imagine being so lost.
Ah yes, Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.
Imagine being so lost indeed.
I’m not questioning his experience but rather his objectivity. Something you should try every once in a while looking at the trash you comment here.
If you’re questioning the objectivity of a former NATO officer with a ton of experience then you’re just grasping at straws.
It would be folly for China to equivacate the two.
The US’s own war games indicate they cannot hold Taiwan.
China’s calculus for whether they need to invade Taiwan is based around whether there will be a peaceful reunification in the future or if it will be used as a springboard for military action against mainland China.
Maybe I should have been more specific, but that’s kind of what I mean. There is real Sinophobia in the US, especially among law makers. So I would see Taiwan given very little support, or a quick escalation to real war.
I do still have at least a little hope Ukraine is going to win. A territory does not typically successfully invade another territory a second time. However, I continue to be outspoken for Ukraine. Without aid, Ukraine will probably do what Chechnya is doing and just resort to dirtier tactics, which I’m glad Ukraine is not doing yet.
Thanks, Pipey.
Ukraine alone won’t be the cause for a dystopian scenario with Russia as the world government, but I don’t like where it would be going if Ukraine fell. Russia surely wouldn’t stop afterwards. I’d rather see a world where trade connects people than a world where governments forcefully connect people via ideologies. The latter never worked out for anyone.
It’s incredible how western propagandists managed to convince people that world’s biggest country with low aging population is on a mission of territorial conquest.
Putin himself likened himself to Peter the Great, speaking of returning and strengthening once-held territories. Unless you agree with his premise that this land was always Russia, despite the current rulers and wishes of the populations living there, territorial expansion is the only conclusion to his statements.
Maybe should read what Putin actually said instead of linking to a US propaganda outlet.
Well, if you have a more accurate source, please share.
I remember a number of news outlets in various western countries quoting Putin talking about rebuilding the Russian empire, but I didn’t bother to save links because I didn’t think people would glibly deny his stated intentions a couple years later.
Go to the official Russian transcript that’s published maybe? I love how you keep acting like the only source that exists is out of context quotes in western media.
Cool, post a link and I’ll run it through a translator.
You’re the one who brought this up, so why don’t you go look up the whole quote. It’ll be a good experience for you to learn how to actually read information from primary sources. You don’t even have to run it through a translator because Russia publishes official transcripts in english.
Who is we???
Who is we???
Perhaps OP is a member of the US congress, trying to figure out what to vote for? 🤪
There is a nice sample of Michael Parenti talking about this kind of use of the word “we” at the beginning of this song. (lyrics here)
Then there will be more aid to israel.
WW3, eventually. The regime won’t stop. The ambition is there to rebuild the USSR. That would mean starting a conflict with NATO and, if I’m lucky, NATO will actually involve.
imagine being so gullible to genuinely believe this nonsense
Which part is gullible?
That current Russian regime won’t stop? It’s not like it would be a first time for them to invade another country.
Or did you mean NATO involvement? Who knows… I’d like to believe that they would involve, but I’m not guaranteed.Sure buddy, the largest country in the world with sparse aging population is on a mission to conquer Europe. 🤡
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He wants the empire not the communism
He also said there’s no war just a special military operation, but here we are.
Ukraine will continue to fight for what is rightfully theirs. They’ve done an outstanding job so far, and it’s really highlighted the decline of Russian influence on the world stage. Russia is nothing more than a petrodollar fueled aggressor.
Ukraine will continue to fight for what is rightfully theirs
Out of curiosity, how do you define rightfully in that case?
If that “rightfully” is defined as “they owned it before”, how long ago does it go? 5 years? 10 years? 100 years? Or just for as long as it is convenient for you? Should Mongolia try to reconquer all the territories it once owned?
Or is it “rightfully” as in “recognized in international law”/“defined by UN” or something like that? In that case, you surely agree that China should fight for Taiwan, right?I define rightfully as internationally recognized sovereign territory, further backed up by the agreements the aggressor made in the past.
So the second option it is.
When is USA planning to send military aid to China to help it reclaim Taiwan that is rightfully theirs?
When the Taiwanese people democratically declare they want to become part of China. I don’t see the US sending military aid to China as long as their claims to the South China Sea don’t respect international maritime law. I’d also imagine respecting intellectual property rights is a concern, in addition to China’s genocidal actions towards the Uyghurs.
When the Taiwanese people democratically declare they want to become part of China.
Wait what? So if people of a region that is internationally recognized as part of another country declare that they want to be part of another country, you are okay with that?
Then how is Donbass and Crimea doing the same is not okay?
Why is it “rightfully theirs” in case of Ukraine, but not “rightfully theirs” in case of China? What the fuck?The Donbass and Crimea are currently occupied by Russia, there’s never been any Ukrainian held election allowing for the secession of this territory. These regions are not self governing entities that can make this determination. With all due respect, you seem a bit dull, so I’ll just leave it at that.
there’s never been any Ukrainian held election
so, there’s been Chinese election allowing for the secession of this territory?
the hypocrisy is mind-blowing :)
Exact same thing that will happen if you pass aid to Ukraine, except less people will die.
I think it’s up to Ukraine to decide if they want to defend themselves or not and they have obviously selected defense.
Russia is the aggressor and is solely responsible for the deaths in this case.
Western backed regime in Ukraine is literally kidnapping people off the streets and forcing them into fighting. Even mainstream western media admits this https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html
Yes very unfortunate but Russia is no better.
That’s pure nonsense given that this is not happening in Russia. Maybe stop guzzling propaganda and start engaging with reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/14/world/europe/russia-convicts-soldiers-ukraine.html
But the worst thing about Russia is obviously that they started the war and are killing Ukrainians in the tens of thousands and are destroying the country for generations to come.
You should stop blindly believing everything the Russians say and especially spreading their propaganda.
Comparing convicts to nabbing people off the street exposes your intellectual dishonesty. However, the fact is that Russia isn’t even doing that anymore. They literally have people volunteering. You should follow your own advice and stop projecting. Everything I’ve been saying about this conflict for the past two years is becoming increasingly obviously true. Meanwhile, people who have been peddling western propaganda are looking like clowns at this point. The fact that you lack any capacity for self reflection is just amazing.
Maybe ask yourself how is it that Russia isn’t collapsing like you were promised, that Russian economy is outperforming the west, that Russian army is becoming stronger than NATO. This all being openly discussed by the same western media that said all those things would happen. Yet, here you are bleating about Russian propaganda.
None of that really matters when Russia is the one that is invading a foreign country and killing its citizens. Funny how all of you keep ignoring that or you just recite the Russian government propaganda.
Ukraine decided. To vote a comedian to a serious office.
They were probably hoping for a comedy, but what they have got is a tragedy.Russia is doing what it had promised to do in its earlier agreements with Ukraine. It can’t be blamed if the electorate in another country doesn’t take things seriously.
Please provide sources for the agreement that says “please invade me and kill lots of our citizens if we ever elect a former comedian as a president”
Maybe find a source for the quoted text first.
It was obviously a joke dude. You Russians have no humor.
But seriously provide a source for the alleged agreement you said existed.
Sigh… I am no Russian.
Just someome who reads both sides of propaganda.Sure…
Russia falling on its face, as an aggressor in this invasion, to a country ran by a comedian really helps to put context to Russia’s decline. They basically shot themselves in the foot and if there weren’t lives being lost, it’d be fairly comedic.
The only comedy is that Russia is falling on its face since 26 months now.
The war will stop, simply put. NATO has been artificially extending this war for far longer than it should have been given the circumstances.
Ukraine had a chance to do peace talks but they blew it trying to have their cake and fuck it too, so now they’re going to lose it all.
EDIT: Oh sorry, the way I put it was turning off a lot of people. Let me rephrase that. Ukraine will see that they are all alone in this fight because the US is too busy doing genocide in the middle east and they will tap into their superior Nordic genetics and unlock their superpowers. They will fly through the air and launch the crippled forces of russian ork war crimes into the stratosphere, the remaining will bow down and admit that nazism is the superior form of government as Russia is forced to finally admit they were losing. In short: they will win by a landslide just like all of the western media has been saying all along. EDIT2: WHAT!? I said Ukraine was going to win, what more do you want from me?? EDIT3: I can’t believe that worked.
Zelensky will finally have to negotiate and end the war (that is, if he wouldn’t get overthrown/killed before that), and millions of Ukrainians will finally get to live without fear of them/their husbands/fathers/etc. getting kidnapped on the streets and being sent to army to die or get permanently wounded.
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stupid fucking clowns
Ad Hominem
But sometimes you gotta call a spade a spade. If you think Putin will finish after a victory in Ukraine you must never have opened a history book in your life.
So if you hate Putin so much - then why don’t you go and fight him yourself? Why do you want millions of Ukrainians to die instead of you, for your goals? How can you think you have a moral high ground supporting a genocide?
That has got to be the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while.
Would you like to explain what’s exactly dumb about that?
Russia has typically been great to non-ethnic Russians, right?
Ukrainians in Crimea and other annexed territories [that are not close to the front lines] have more or less normal life now. They can continue living where they live, or they can at any moment return to Ukraine, nobody is holding them hostage, they are free!
On the other hand, Ukrainians who failed to escape Ukraine don’t really have a choice other live in fear that today might be the day they (or their family) get kidnapped and sent to the army, or try to escape and get caught by “heroes” of the border patrol who carefully watch that nobody escape the meat grinder (unless they give them a hefty bribe).“They are free!”
Provided you don’t criticise Russia’s actions, the regime, try to change anything or raise an issue about any oligarch stealing.
That’s not freedom.
That’s not freedom.
Have you read what I’ve written? Let me quote myself again:
Ukrainians who failed to escape Ukraine don’t really have a choice other live in fear that today might be the day they (or their family) get kidnapped and sent to the army, or try to escape and get caught by “heroes” of the border patrol who carefully watch that nobody escape the meat grinder (unless they give them a hefty bribe).
You’re absolutely right about Russia having problems you’ve described, I’ve never said Russia is a good place to live (except when comparing to current situation in Ukraine) but in Ukraine people are getting kidnapped and sent to die! Literally! How can you even compare those two things?
If you don’t like what happens in Russia - you can just leave. You are not a hostage! If you like Ukraine so much - go buy a ticket and join army as a volunteer.
If you don’t like what happens in Ukraine - you can’t do anything! You are not allowed to leave country, don’t even dream about going to Russia! You can’t even come close to a border! You are treated worse than a street dog! You can only try to hide from the government until it gets overthrown or until somehow the war ends.If you’re conscripted you’re not kidnapped.
I’ve been conscripted myself. I did my years in the army. They were not a kidnapping.
If you resist a conscription done by a democratic, legal government of the country you’re living in, you’re not kidnapped; you’re caught. Call a spade a spade.
You naming it conscription instead of kidnapping doesn’t mean it’s not kidnapping. Talk about calling spade a spade…
Pretty sure Russia “kidnaps” (conscripts) a hell of alot more than Ukraine does.
Russia also beating Ukrainians in the occupied territories, forcing them to become Russian citizens, and then either forcing them into fighting against their own country or ship them off to some labour camp never too be seen again.
Do you think they are “free” to leave Russia?
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what an amazing counterargument you’ve mustered there
So, wanting my family that is trapped in Ukraine to stay alive makes me a Russian loyalist? How so?
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Yes sure. everyone.
I think we must have heard different 'everyone’s around the brink of war. Because I remember a lot of talk that Russia probably wouldn’t invade at all because actually conquering Ukraine was too unrealistic.
What a downer. Blocked.
Before you block me as well (I suppose you will want to do that, as I similarly express unpopular opinions here), could you please answer just one question that intrigues me?
Why is the USA left (I hope it’s not controversial to say that majority on lemmy are left-leaning?), that clearly considers itself to be more intelligent than the right (the right are all conspiracy theorists, all believe in flat earth, don’t trust the science/vaccines, vote for Trump because they are dumb, etc.), is so incapable of having a civilized discussion and exchange of opinions, confuses facts and opinions, and instead prefers to silently downvote everything they don’t agree with and block people with different opinions?
Well, thats a good question. I‘ll take it literally first:
The left as a whole suffers from large quantities of unreflected people who will repeat stuff without thinking about it, unable to discuss like grown ups. Thats has nothing to do with the US imo.
Now I‘m gonna try and read what you actually wanted to say/answered: I blocked these individuals because they were unable to discuss but had to unilaterally dump their „everything is lost“ narrative and my life isnt long enough to waste time with people who are that far out.
Does this mean you can call me unable to discuss differing opinions? Absolutely! Is it actually true? Not in my opinion.
You can do whatever you like with this. Have a good one.
That’s quite a reasonable one, except
they were unable to discuss
because AFAICS nobody tried to discuss anything with them, so for me it wouldn’t be an easy task to grade their discussion skills. On the other hand I suppose you have a point that their message doesn’t invite a discussion either…
Have a good one.
Thanks, you too.
Might as well block me too while you’re at it
Sure. Your wish is my command.
