I understand the historical significance since the nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War.
Back then, and for perhaps the middle part of the 20th century, there was a threat of a government in exile claiming mainland China. Historically, then, there was your impetus for invasion.
However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.
Another reason people give: control the supply of chips. Yet, wouldn’t the Fabs, given their sensitive nature, be likely to be significantly destroyed in the process of an invasion?
Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?
People mention that taking Taiwan would be a breakout from the “containment” imposed by the ring of U.S. allies in the region.
Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.
So what is it then? Is it just for national pride and glory? Is it to create a legacy for their leadership? The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.
Anyway, appreciate your opinions thanks!
The premise of your question is all wrong. It centers western control of Taiwan as a natural status quo, and so paints every challenge of that control as a provocation or threat.
Advocating for Taiwan’s sovereignty is not the same as advocating for Taiwan’s continued fealty to the west.
The giant American military base next to China falls.
Also Taiwan claims to be part of China. And America claims Taiwan is part of China.
China considers taiwan a part of its country. If china is able to capture and integrate taiwan into it then it will show that china has become a superpower. If china can capture taiwan then it will show USA and west that china is not a paper tiger.
You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.
Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.
So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.
The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?
Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.
Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak.
Keep in mind that China is struggling as well. Their debt problems are several times worse than the US, so they could suffer a major recession within the next few years if a significant disruption like war happens.
Lots of good points, but one aspect that people haven’t mentioned yet is that Taiwan is part of the “first island chain”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy
If the PRC conquers Taiwan, then it makes it much harder for the west to blockade the PRC in future conflicts.
Though technically, it is much more important to control the strait of Malacca than Taiwan.
The island chain strategy is the exact reason why China desires Taiwan. If anything, it’s a desire not to be blockaded.
It’s also the reason why China has been trying to dominate the South China Sea because that’s its only outlet to open seas.
Like I said, the messaging around the PRC’s imperialistic ambitions in Taiwan goes far beyond the concern around blockades. It’s just interesting from a military/strategic perspective.
Worth noting that even Russia has not been blockaded after it’s imperialistic annexation of Ukraine.
Land and the sea surrounding Taiwan, which comes with resource that they can exploit, and controling people that they claim is theirs. It’s the same reason why europe sail across the sea to colonize others land, and why US doesn’t let Puerto Rico become independent. China never acknowledged that Taiwan is an independent country, they always believe that Taiwan is their territory. It’s imperialism.
Puerto Rico doesn’t want to be independent. They regularly have polls on this. About half want to be a state. About half want to keep the status quo. A small fraction favor independence. And it is obvious why - despite all the economic restrictions and lack of representation, the average Puerto Rican is far better off economically with a US passport. Just look at comparable Caribbean island nations - an independent Puerto Rico would have little going for it other than as a stopover for shipping boats and cruise ships. As part of the US, they draw an outsized portion of the Caribbean tourism market, can easily trade with US companies without the impediments of international borders, and can dream that their kids can go to the mainland and study in some of the best universities in the world.
That’s true, my bad. I meant to draw comparison on why US still have Puerto Rico as a territory but without any political representation
Doesn’t both Taiwan and China both officially recognize all of China and Taiwan as their own territory?
Yes and according to the CCP if Taiwan ever changes that it will trigger military action.
Huh I guess I might have been weong— Taiwan technically does claim the mainland? But also not its governance?
“The 1991 constitutional amendments and the 1992 Cross-Strait Relations Act marked a pivotal shift, as the ROC ceased actively claiming governance over the mainland, stopped treating the PRC as a rebellious group, and started treating it in practise, as an equal political entity effectively governing mainland China from ROC’s perspective, though the ROC constitution still technically includes the mainland as ROC territory.”
Yeah it’s one of those technically true things that gets trotted out a lot to paint a “both sides” type picture. Not sure if that was the other commenters intent or not, but when stated without context it often seems like that’s the intent.
I think the key word is “practical”. Both the mainland and Taiwanese governments are not stupid, they know they have to acknowledge the status quo for day to day business like customs and immigration.
stopped treating the PRC as a rebellious group
That was to lift martial law.
Maybe, but when is the last time you heard taiwan claiming china is their territory rather than talking about taiwan independent (台独)?
From China’s geopolitical standpoint:
Taiwan lies between China and the Pacific Ocean.
Taiwan is part of the First Island Chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) — many of these are U.S.-aligned or host U.S. bases.
Control over Taiwan would:
Give China greater military and surveillance reach into the Pacific.
Potentially allow it to break out of U.S.-aligned containment.
Give it more control over critical sea lanes and access to deeper waters (vital for its navy).
Also it’s makes their metaphorical dicks hard. Maybe their literal dicks too, idk.
china is a bit like Yugoslavia before the end: lots of different ethnicities being forced to be together. letting a country made up of Chinese people exist in parallel to china keeps a flame of hope alight for those 51 non-Han Chinese ethnicities that were forced to be part of continental china. and China has struggled immensely with multitudes of local kingdoms and warlords throughout its history so it is afraid as its people are very aware of this past through historical dramas
What does China achieve
The typical bully’s satisfaction.
In 100 years, long after the United States has broken into Baltic states, there will be a reunification movement and people will ask “why do they want to invade Texas?”. There will be politicians who’s whole political careers will be built on the promise they can make the United States one country again. Understand this and you will understand China and Taiwan.
I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it. So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.
I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it.
Taiwan was under Qing Rule until the Japanese took it. Then when Imperial Japan lost, they gave Taiwan back to ROC in 1945.
So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.
No, it’s be more like Japan taking Hawaii during WW2, then Japan loses and the US regains it, then immediately after, the US has a civil war between people who believe in the constitution vs a neo-nazi insurgency. The neo-nazi insurgency wins and the US government then flees to Hawaii. Then the neo-nazi insurgent-government in continental US is trying to regain Hawaii, while those who fled to Hawaii is trying to declare a “Republic of Hawaii” in order to preserve their democracy.
Imo I think the biggest thing is it would be completing the revolution in the sense that the KMT fled to Taiwan and is a holdout, that would be a huge win for national pride and legitimacy for the government. The second biggest thing would be nothaving another country with an army so close to them that is “hostile” to their interests. And then after that there would be a lot of other benefits like absorbing their industry, economic zones, military bases, etc. They would much rather have the modern KMT party win an election and vote to become a part of China, than invade, which while very unlikely is not impossible by any means in the span of decades.
The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.
China is not invading Taiwan. However if it comes to a war with the US, then it really has to take out Taiwan. It is just too close to the mainland, allowing for easy bombing and missile attacks, while als being able to cut off shipping from the mainland. Obviously the US likes that a lot, as it makes war against the US much more costly for China.
At the same time leaders often make horrible decisions. Just look at the US invading Iraq and Afghanistan or Russia invading Ukraine. Clearly not good wars for the countries invading, but they still did it.
Same thing they gained from invading Hong Kong, they think it belongs to them.
Or as one of my old friends told me while playing Final Fantasy 12; the only legitimate reason to wage war against another country - land.
Hong Kong is already part of the Chinese mainland and was already kinda part of China, but Taiwan is a geographically strategic location that puts both Koreas, the Philippines, & Japan in a tougher position. Even without war it would make trade and travel in the Pacific much harder.
They didn’t invade Hong Kong, it was given back to China from the British after the 99 year lease expired. The violence in Hong Kong was to destroy the concept of democracy among the citizens there.
However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.
The thing that we call “Taiwan” is an island, not a country, the country is “Republic of China” (ROC). We call it mostly Taiwan, because there is the People’s Republic of China (PRC) which is the mainland China. So you still have 2 countries, next to each other, both claiming to have the name “China”.
You claim the name, you claim the country.
Stopping american influence
